Derive: Probability of Bitcoin Falling Below $70,000 by Christmas Rises to 31%

TechFlow reported on November 11 that, according to The Block, Derive options pricing showed the probability of Bitcoin closing below $70,000 by Christmas had risen from 15% last week to 31%, while the probability of closing above $80,000 by Christmas had fallen from 53% to 26%.

Derive Founder and CEO Nick Forster said traders are shifting to defensive positioning. Last week, the platform's Bitcoin options trading volume reached $418 million, up 37%; put options accounted for 55% of traded premiums, compared with 36% the previous week.

K33 Research Head Vetle Lunde said Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest stood at about 353,000 BTC on Tuesday, up 12% over the past 30 days, while Bitcoin's price fell 10% over the same period. He noted that a downside break could trigger large-scale long liquidations, while a rebound could prompt short covering, amplifying price volatility.

Source: TechFlow